Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
