Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
